Editor’s Note: This is part two in a four-part series about the challenges facing millennials as we look ahead into the future. You can check out “Part I: The Inevitability of Climate Change” here. Be sure to come back tomorrow for “Part III: The Wild World of Human Enhancement”.
Right now, we are all lab rats in a giant experiment: the experiment of modern technology. Of course, we’re not the first generation to find ourselves in uncharted waters. Indeed, every past generation has had to adjust to the technological advances of the times.
But there’s something about our current moment in technological history that makes it fundamentally different than any other point in the past. That something is artificial intelligence.
For generations, new machines have been reducing the need for physical labor – either by greatly increasing the amount of work a single person can do, or, in some cases, by eliminating the need for physical labor altogether. Nevertheless, for most of human history, these machines still required human operators. Why? Because even the best machines lacked the ability to think.
1913: The Ford factory in Highland Park, Michigan introduces the first moving assembly line
All that changed when modern computers hit the scene in the 1970s. The early models were tragically slow (not to mention cumbersome and expensive), but in the forty years since then, computers have become exponentially faster and vastly more intelligent. Today, pretty much every aspect our everyday lives relies upon some sort of computer.
As they grow increasingly more advanced, computers are slowly but steadily beginning to take over jobs that once required human intelligence. And while automation is still in its early stages, the process has been accelerating in recent years – the International Federation of Robotics reports:
“In 2014, robot sales increased by 29% to 229,261 units, by far the highest level ever recorded for one year… Since 2010, the demand for industrial robots has accelerated considerably due to the ongoing trend toward automation and the continued innovative technical improvements of industrial robots. Between 2010 and 2014, the average robot sales increase was at 17% per year (CAGR). The number of robot installations has never increased so heavily before.”
Of course, automation isn’t all about robots – it’s also about highly advanced computer systems. Self-driving technology, for example, is poised to shake up the U.S. job market in a major way.
While it is generally seen as a positive advancement (because of the safety advantages it offers), self-driving tech is threatening to destroy one of America’s most popular occupations: the truck driver. In fact, it’s happening already. Self-driving big-rigs hit the streets of Nevada earlier this year, and self-driving trucks have been hauling ore for the mining industry since at least 2012.
Daimler’s self-driving big-rig (Courtesy of Daimler)
The hustle and bustle of everyday life makes it hard for us to perceive the growing trend towards automation, but whether or not we’re aware of it, it’s happening, and it’s happening fast. One recent study predicted that automation will replace a third of all jobs within the next 10 years; another estimated that the number could rise to as much as 47% by 2035.
Michael Osborne, a University of Oxford professor of Machine Learning, co-authored that second study. He explains,
“Machine learning is the study of algorithms that can learn and act, and algorithms are increasingly a cheaper alternative to human work…They are replacing some of the most quintessential human activities.”
Earlier this year, NPR’s Planet Money team decided to crunch the numbers to determine which jobs had the highest likelihood of getting automated. Their analysis found that telemarketers have a 99% chance of being replaced, with cashiers, tellers and drivers all more than 97% likely to lose their jobs to automation.
But don’t think that you’re immune to automation just because you work a “professional” job: computers and robots have already begun to replace humans in a number of white-collar professions, from financial advising and accounting to reporting and even basic brain surgery.
This robot can perform brain surgery on people suffering from conditions that affect the hippocampus a region of the brain that plays a role in inhibition, memory and spatial awareness. The robot accesses this region through the cheek, making the process much less invasive than traditional surgery (Courtesy of Vanderbilt University)
There are, of course, some jobs that have a very low likelihood of getting automated. Fortune reports:
The job with the lowest shot at being overtaken by technology in the future? Mental health and substance abuse social workers. They have a 0.3% chance, according to the data. Occupational therapists also rank at 0.3%, while dentists, surgeons and nutritionists appear pretty safe at just 0.4%.
So no, robotic workers probably won’t replace every human job. But what happens if when they take a third of the jobs? Half? Two-thirds? At what point do we seriously reconsider the way that our society is set up – specifically, the idea that everyone must work to access the basic necessities of a decent life?
What will we do with all the people who are rendered obsolete by automation in the coming years? Will we blame them for acquiring the wrong skills to compete in the job market? Will we create training programs to help them transition to other jobs? Will we suddenly have a bunch of extra therapists, dentists and nutritionists?
I don’t have the answers to these questions, but with automation already starting to displace human workers, I think it’s crucial that we start having a serious conversation about the future. Unfortunately, precious few people are interested in discussing this issue. And that, to me, is very unsettling.